Published 2023-09-25
Keywords
- Three-child policy,
- Fertility indicators,
- Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP),,
- Mathematical modeling,
- Population growth forecasting
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2023 Top Academic Journal of Engineering and Mathematics
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Abstract
: The implementation of the three-child policy in China has sparked a critical discussion regarding its implications for population fertility. This research aims to shed light on this pressing issue by identifying key indicators of fertility, conducting in-depth data analysis, and proposing mathematical models to inform evidence-based policy recommendations. The ultimate goal is to harness the benefits of the three-child policy to mitigate the challenges of population aging.
In our investigation, we commence by scrutinizing existing domestic production indicators and pertinent data to construct an indicator system that comprehensively assesses factors influencing the childbirth cost for typical Chinese families. Employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), we assign initial weights to these indicators and propose practical measures to address the identified concerns. Furthermore, we construct a curve by enveloping these weights, providing valuable insights into the distribution of childbirth cost [1]. We proceed to formulate a mathematical model capable of quantifying fertility costs and assessing fertility willingness, which is essential for understanding the economic aspects of family planning.
Moving forward, we employ a predictive approach by utilizing a Backpropagation (BP) neural network to forecast population growth with and without the three-child policy in effect. By projecting the population figures for the next three years, we discern the disparities between these scenarios and meticulously examine the impact of the three-child policy [2]. Specifically, we calculate the ratio of population growth attributed to the policy, shedding light on its influence on fertility rates.
Our findings are expected to provide valuable insights into the multifaceted dynamics of population fertility and the repercussions of the three-child policy. This research equips policymakers with a robust scientific foundation upon which to base decisions aimed at optimizing the advantages of the policy while addressing the challenges associated with an aging population. As China grapples with the complex interplay between demographic trends and social policy, our study offers actionable recommendations to foster sustainable population growth and socioeconomic development
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